What’s Wrong With Justin Verlander???

I’m trying not to panic here after a couple bad outings by Verlander but as I have mentioned in previous entries, that even though the numbers were good for JV it felt like something was off.

After last night’s debacle where JV gave up 8 earned runs in two and two thirds of an inning, Verlander’s ERA jumped from 1.93 to 3.17.  This was by far the worst outing of the year for JV and his shortest outing since he only completed two innings against the Mets back in June of 2010.

One bad outing wouldn't be a concern, but he struggled against the Indians the previous start as well where he had obvious control problems walking 5 including 3 in the first inning.  Last night control seemed to be an issue or at least it seemed like it when JV tried to reach back to blow it buy hitters with the bases loaded in the 3^rd and instead walked in two runs. 

Now the thumb (to the right) was a concern early in the season but I have to wonder if it’s something more than that and all the pitches and innings are catching up to JV and he has a case of dead arm, or worse an injury of some sorts.  Just take a look at the velocity chart from Fangraphs below and you can see before last night that he was far below his average since ’11.

Let’s just hope it’s a case of dead arm or something mechanical and not something worse where he’ll need to be shut down for some time.  I highly recommend keeping an eye on his next start as well.

*To see other pitch type speeds besides his fastball, click here

An Interesting Decision on Avila

This off season I think Detroit is headed in to making an interesting decision on Alex Avila as he’s continued to struggle now for a second straight year and 3 of his 4 years where he’s spent a majority of his time in the Majors.

Alex had an amazing breakout year in 2011, where his play help carried the Tigers in to the playoffs, earned him 12^th place in the MVP voting and made it look like he was on target to be one of the top catchers in the American League (Here’s an ESPN article on him in 2011).

The year previous to the 2011 breakout seemed like a distant memory, but some were cautious expecting a little retreat in his numbers after all, he did hit just .228 in 2010 with 7 home runs and 31 RBI in 333 plate appearances (.656 OPS).  The problem was Alex flashed power the year before in his late season call-up where he had hit 5 homers in 72 plate appearances, so fans really thought that 2010 was an aberration after his 2009 debut and 2011 breakout. 

I’m not sure if it was because Brandon Inge and Ryan Raburn was catching all the heat, but it surprised me a bit that Alex got a pass last year from fans and the media  and seems to be getting yet another pass by most this year. 

Alex is struggling yet again this season but even more than in the past as he continues to chop and miss or connect weakly leading to a .184 average to date with 4 homers, 9RBI, and a .577 OPS.  I think the numbers lead to serious concern after 2012 where he just .243, with 9 homers, 48 RBI, and a .736 OPS.

I haven’t really gotten on Avila until this season as I had this false belief that he was a defensively strong catcher and  that to build a good defensive team you wanted to be strong up the middle, meaning at catcher, Shortstop, second base, and in center, but when looking at his defensive WAR it seems like Alex is just average to slightly above average in that category with his best year coming in 2012 at 1.3 but this year he is at zero and for his career at 1.7 meaning he was at or below average.

And don’t even ask about the Postseason; ok go for it…20 games, 74 plate appearances, .129 avg, .393 OPS, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 28 K!

So what to do next?  Alex is still just 26 and making $2.9 this season and won’t become a free agent until 2016 so do we stick with him or look elsewhere? 

I know one thing; the answer isn't Brayan Pena so here’s a look at what’s on the farm:

Toledo (Triple-A)

Ramon Cabrera, 23 yrs - .308 avg, 1 HR, 23 RBI, .809 OPS, however he spent most of his time at Double-A Erie.  Since his call-up to Toledo he’s played 11 games and hit .205, with a hr, 3 RBI, and .593 OPS

Brad Davis, 31 yrs – NO

Bryan Holaday, 25 yrs - .271 avg, 28 games, 2 HR, 8 RBI, .740 OPS

Erie (Double-A)

Zach Maggard, 25-yrs – Filled in for Cabrera once he was called up, at this point hitting .231 at Erie.

James McCann, 22-yrs – The Tigers 2^nd round pick in 2011, McCann is hitting .323 in 34 games at Erie with 9 doubles, zero homers, and 18 RBI with a .749 OPS.  I’ve personally seen McCann and let me tell you he’s a BIG boy

West Michigan (Single-A)

Bennett Pickar, 22-yrs – .250  avg, 5 2B, 0 HR, 7 RBI, .638 OPS

Afolfo Reina, 23-yrs – NO

McCann looks to be the closest but it seems pretty clear that he’s a couple years away thus if Detroit wants to improve at catcher they may have to get creative in a trade or free agent market, however it doesn't mean they need a big bat with their offense as I would settle for someone who can control the run game better. 

I do believe the Tigers will stick with Avila through thick and thin for the next few years and probably should with the a low price tag and if he can keep his OPS over .700.  A lot I think also has to do with loyalty as Leyland has gotten accustomed to Alex and MR. I will be loyal to Alex’s dad Al who is the Assistant GM

Series Preview: Detroit Tigers (22-16, .5 GA) vs. Texas Rangers (26-14, 7 GA)

Texas comes in to the series pretty hot, winning seven of their last 10 which included series wins against Oakland, Houston, and a split with Milwaukee all on the road.  The Rangers have a huge seven game lead in the AL West which can partially be attributed to an 11-4 home record and +41 run differential.  The best record in the AL belongs to Texas currently as they are well balanced with pitching and hitting.  They currently rank 9^th in the Majors in runs scored with 183, rank 5^th in batting average with a .266, 6^th in on base at .330, and 2^nd in slugging with a .444 percentage.  From a pitching standpoint, the Rangers have gotten 23 quality starts, ranking 7^th in the Majors, they have a team ERA of 3.44 ranking 3^rd, a 1.20 WHIP, good for 5^th, and a .236 average against which is 5^th in the Majors.  Basically they are the more consistent Tigers of the AL West.

The Tigers struggled against the Indians, which in part is why the team is 5-5 in their last 10, however they are coming off a series win against the Astros but concern should be for the 9-9 record on the road.  The Tigers still lead the Majors I run differential at +60 which can explained by their powerful offense and good pitching.  The Tigers rank first in the Majors in runs scored with 206, 1^st in batting average at .283, 1^st in on base at .351, and 5^th in slugging at .433.  Keep an eye on the leadoff spot with Ajax on the DL and a struggling Torii Hunter to see how many RBI opportunities the big boys get this series.  Our pitching I feel is a bit deceiving as the starters have struggled recently, however the Tigers still rank 5^th in team ERA at 3.47, have 26 quality starts (3^rd), own a 1.19 WHIP (3^rd), and hold opponents to .234 average against (3^rd).

Pepper Key Opposing Player in the Series: Nelson Cruz, with 7 home runs against the Tigers during the regular season and 27 RBI.  Cruz also tacked on 6 taters and 13 RBI in the 2011 Post Season against Detroit as his single-handedly took down the Tigers.

Pitching Match up @ Ballpark in Arlington

5/16, 8:05 – Justin Verlander (4-3, 1.93 ERA) vs. Yu Darvish (6-1, 2.73 ERA)

5/17, 8:05 – Rick Porcello (1-2, 6.68 ERA) vs. Nick Tepesch (3-3, 4.03 ERA)

5/18, 8:05 – Anibal Sanchez (4-3, 2.05 ERA) vs. Justin Grimm (2-3, 4.28 ERA)

5/19, 8:05 – Doug Fister (5-1, 3.06 ERA) vs. Derek Holland (3-2, 2.93 ERA)

Season Series: N/A

The Ballpark in Arlington

Who to Watch (Texas)

Mitch Moreland, 1B – Moreland is showing that he belongs in the Majors this season, hitting .290 with 9 HR, 18 RBI, and a team leading .910 OPS.  Over the past week, Moreland has hit .304 with 3 homers, two doubles, and a triple.

Ian Kinsler, 2B – Kinsler is healthy and doing it all once again, hitting .304 on the season with 7 dingers, 20 RBI, and an .874 OPS

Yu Darvish, SP – Darvish is in the early Cy Young discussion if not the leader at this point with a 6-1 record, 2.73 ERA, and 13.67 K/9 ratio.  He has given up 5 home runs, all in his last three starts.

Who Not to Watch (Texas)

David Murphy, OF – Murphy is struggling considerably, hitting just .205 with 20 k’s, and a .628 OPS

Michael Kirkman, RP – If Kirkman comes in the game in close situations, the Tigers will have a chance to score runs as he currently has a 6.35 ERA and has given up 12 earned in 17 innings and although he has a high k/9 rate (11.12), his WHIP of 1.94 offsets that

Who’s Hot (Detroit, Last 7 Games)

Jhonny Peralta, SS – Over the past week J-Honny has been on fire hitting .471 with a couple of doubles and a home run, hanging a 1.373 OPS

Omar Infante, 2B – Omar has led the team in hits (1 more than Miggy) this past week with 11 and a .458 batting average.  Of those 11 hits, 2 were doubles, and one was a triple adding up to a 1.125 OPS

Anibal Sanchez, SP – Sanchez bested the Astros in his last start throwing 7 strong innings, collecting the win, while giving up 2 earned and striking out 8.

Who’s Not (Detroit, Last 7 Games)

Prince Fielder, 1B – Fielder is going through one of his mini-slumps (we hope) again, where he is hitting .154 with just 4 hits in his last 26 at bats and just an RBI

Alex Avila, C – Avila lands back on the cold list after disappearing for a short amount of time.  Avila hit just .176 this pasts week with only 3 hits and 5 strike outs

Justin Verlander, SP – JV had his worst outing that I could remember in some time where he walked three batters in the first against Cleveland and only lasted 5 innings where he took the lost and gave up 4 runs (3 earned) on 6 hits, walked 5, and struck out 7 while throwing 110 pitches

Series Prediction: Rangers win 3 of 4

Next Series: 2 @ Cleveland Indians (22-17, .5 GB)

Series Preview: Cleveland Indians (18-14, 1 GB) vs. Detroit Tigers (19-13, .5 GA)

Cleveland replaces Detroit as the hottest team in Baseball, coming in to the series won a 4 game winning streak and winners of 9 out of their last 10.  An 8-7 road record and +33 run differential is going to make this an interesting series as Cleveland has been getting it done with the bats.  Currently, the Indians rank 6^th in runs scored in the Majors with 163, 3^rd in batting average at .271, 5^th in on-base at .334, and 1^st in slugging at .475.  The pitching is all over the place as Cleveland has the best average against at .227, but 12^th best WHIP at 1.26, 14^th best ERA at 3.83, and only 15 quality starts which is good for 22^nd.

Detroit comes off a disappointing series against Washington where they were swept in two games filled with mistakes, poor early pitching, and the inability to hit with runners in scoring position with two outs.  That said, the Tigers still come in to this series in first place in the Central, have won 7 of their last 10, and hold a 10-4 record at home while still boasting a Major League best +49 run differential.  The series should be really interesting with both teams looking very strong offensively.  Detroit ranks 4^th in runs scored with 169, first in batting average with .284, 1^st in on base percentage at .350, and 6^th in slugging at .423.  Where Detroit differs from Cleveland is on the mound as Detroit ranks 5^th in ERA with a 3.36, 2^nd in quality starts with 23, 2^nd in WHIP at 1.19, and average against at .234.

Pitching Matchup @ Comerica Park

5/10, 7:08 – Corey Kluber (2-1, 3.06 ERA) vs. Max Scherzer (4-0, 3.43 ERA)

5/11, 7:08 – Ubaldo Jimenez (2-2, 6.37 ERA) vs. Justin Verlander (4-2, 1.55 ERA)

5/12, 4:05 – Zach McAllister (3-3, 2.63 ERA) vs. Rick Porcello (1-2, 7.52 EA)

Season Series: N/A

Comerica Park

Who to Watch (Cleveland)

Carlos Santana, C – Santana comes in to the weekend series hitting .358 with 7 homers and 15 RBI, while racking up a 1.129 OPS

Mark Reynolds, 3B – Reynolds has found his power swing in Cleveland mashing 11 home runs to date and has cut his strike out rate considerably to 1 in about 4 at bats

Zach McAllister, SP – Won his last two starts against the A’s and Phillies to pull even at 3 and 3.  Against Oakland, McAllister didn’t allow a run over 7.2 innings, scattered five hits, and struck out four

Who Not to Watch (Cleveland)

Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B – The youngster is hitting .235 with 3 homers and 11 RBI and hasn’t had things click just yet at the plate like they did in the minors

Jason Kipnis, 2B – Kipnis is coming off a great start to a career but started slowly where he is hitting .221 with 4 homers and has 14 RBI, while leading the team in strike outs with 34

Ubaldo Jimenez, SP – Ubaldo also won his last 2 games against the A’s and Royals to get to 2-3 on the season.  The A’s scored a couple on Jimenez while he struck out 8 and he shut down the Royals for 7 scoreless.    Prior to that, Ubaldo gave up 18 runs over a three game stretch to Houston, Boston, and the Yankees, giving up 7 in each game to the Red Sox and Yankees.

Who’s Hot (Detroit, Last 7 Days)

Jhonny Peralta, SS – Johnny has been red hot, hitting .467 in 18 plate appearances, racking up 7 hits and 3 RBI with a 1.089 OPS

Miguel Cabrera, 3B – Cabrera appears once again on the list, hitting .429 with 2 dingers, 7 RBI, and a 1.240 OPS

Justin Verlander, SP – I’m not sure what it is, but I feel like Verlander is having an off year and then I see his 4-2 record and 1.55 ERA and can’t quite figure where I got that from.  JV picked up his 4^th win of the season against the Astros where he no-hit the team until the 7^th, giving up just two hits, and striking out nine

Who’s Not (Detroit, Last 7 Days)

Don Kelly, OF – Kelly was hitless in 10 at bats (PLAY TUIASOSOPO PLEASE!!), where he scored 3 runs on

2 walks to go with his .167 OPS

Austin Jackson, OF – Jackson hit just .211 over the past week with just one extra base hit (a double) and

5 k’s to go with a .513 OPS

Series Prediction: Tigers win 2 of 3, damn you Ricky P!

Next Series: 3 vs. Houston Astros (10-25, 11.5 GB)

Barry Bonds - A Baseball Card Timeline

I've been kicking around the idea of doing a daily or weekly baseball card of the day to keep things interesting, not needing a lot of maintenance, but also sparking some nostalgia and believe I'll start it late next week or the the following but to get things started, below is everyone of Barry Bonds standard issued Topps baseball cards starting from his 1986 Topps Traded and ending with his 2007 Topps card.  In between are 762 home runs, 2,935 hits, 2,227, runs, 2,558 walks, 7 MVP awards, and countless amounts of steroids.  Take a look at his rookie card compared to his last card (oh, I threw another pic in as well).  Hope you like.

1988 Topps

1986 Topps Traded

1987 Topps

1991 Topps

1989 Topps

1990 Topps

1994 Topps

1992 Topps

1993 Topps

1995 Topps

1997 Topps

1996 Topps

1998 Topps

2000 Topps

1999 Topps

2003 Topps

2001 Topps

2002 Topps

2004 Topps

2006 Topps

2005 Topps

2007 Topps

1987 Topps vs. 2007 Topps

Series Preview: Detroit Tigers (19-11, 1 GA) vs. Washington Nationals (17-15, 2.5 GB)

The Nationals come in on a bit of a disappointment as the offense has gone south for a bit leading to a 17-15 record and 2^nd place to date in the NL East.  Washington is just 9-7 at home and 6-4 in their last 10, but has won two in a row against the Pirates but carrying a -12 run differential at this point.  As I mentioned the offense it the culprit ranking 27^th in the Majors in runs scored with 113, 28^th in batting average with a .231, 28^th in on base with a .295, and 23^rd in slugging with a .381 percentage.  The pitching on the other hand is what has kept them close in the NL East race, with a 3.53 ERA (7^th), 19 quality starts (5^th), a 1.21 WHIP (5^th), and .241 average against (11^th).  The Nat’s were the popular pick in the preseason by many to win the World Series with a star studded roster led by youngsters Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg.

The Tigers get their first taste of interleague play away from home and will sit Victor Martinez tonight due to the lack of the DH.  Detroit comes in to the series as the Major’s hottest team, winning 9 of their last 10, including a 4 game sweep of the Astros where they bumped their run differential up to a Major League leading +52.  Detroit does struggle more on the road where there team is just 9-7, but let’s not forget that include a 9-game road swing out west where they started 4-1.  The Tigers offense continues to roll with the 2^nd most runs scored in the Majors (164), the 2^nd highest batting average at .285, the best on-base percentage at .352, and a surge in power has bumped the team up to 6^th in slugging percentage at .428.  The pitching has been equally as good with the Major’s 5^th best ERA at 3.36, 2^nd most quality starts with 22, 4^th best WHIP at 1.19, and 3^rd best opposing batting average at .232.  Heads up, this could be a preview of the World Series!

UPDATED FOR RAINOUT MAKE-UP
Pitching Match-up @ Nationals Park

5/8, 7:05 – Anibal Sanchez (3-2, 1.82 ERA) vs. Jordan Zimmerman (5-1, 1.64 ERA)

5/9, 4:05 – Doug Fister (4-0, 2.48 ERA) vs. Dan Haren (3-3, 5.01 ERA)

Season Series: N/A

Nationals Park

Who to Watch (Washington)

Bryce Harper, OF – It’s safe to say the 20-year old phenomn is legit, hitting .312 on the season with 9 home runs, 18 RBI, 1.033 OPS.  I believe I have a man-crush on Harper as his passion and drive for game make him extremely fun to watch.  He’s very old school…

Ian Desmond, SS – The slugging shortstop isn’t a household name yet, but he will be down the road as he continues to develop.  Desmond has 17 extra base hits including 4 home runs and 11 RBI, to go with a .282 average and .795 OPS.

Jordan Zimmerman, SP – Zimmerman has picked up the slack for Stephen Strasburg, winning 5 of six starts, including his last two against Atlanta and Cincinnati where he allowed zero earned runs over 17 innings of work and lowered his season ERA to 1.64.  Zimmerman doesn’t walk a whole bunch (7 in 44 innings) and strikes out about 6 per 9 innings while holding opposing batters to a .168 average.  He will be tested tonight…

Who Not to Watch (Washington)

Adam LaRoche, 1B – The Nat’s re-signed LaRoche late bad had hopes he could follow up last year’s outstanding performance with another, however he’s gotten off to a slow start hitting .168 with 32 k’s in 109 plate appearances.  LaRoche does have 3 homers and 9 RBI

Danny Espinosa, 2B – Espinosa hasn’t had the success that his double play counterpart (Desmond) has had, as he’s hitting just .185, striking out 21 times in 95 plate appearances and collecting just a .567 OPS

Dan Haren, SP – Haren has won his last 2 starts evening his record and lowering his ERA to 5.01, but isn’t striking out a ton and has given up homers in 4 of his 6 starts including 4 to Cincinnati on April 5^th.  In common theme to Zimmerman, Haren hardly walks anyone giving up just 5 on the season.

Who’s Hot (Detroit, Last 7 Days)

Miguel Cabrera, 3B – Surprised?   Me either.  Cabby hit .458 over the past week with 3 home runs and 10 RBI, banging out 11 hits, and 4 walks in 28 plate appearances.

Prince Fielder, 1B – The nice thing about this is Andy Dirks could have gone here after a rough start, but Fielder did break out of a mini-slump hitting .348 with 2 bombs and 7 RBI to go with 6 other hits and 5 walks.

Tigers Bullpen - Yea, I said it…  For the most part, the bullpen has looked pretty good as of late and what was once a negative with the team has done its share to contribute to wins.  Jose Ortega, Smyly, Benoit, Putkonen, and Valverde have all thrown over the past week and not given up an earned run while striking out 16 in 12 innings.

Who’s Not (Detroit, Last 7 Days)

Anibal Sanchez, SP – It wouldn’t be the Tigers if the hitting and bullpen were clicking to have the starting pitching struggle a bit, but Sanchez and Fister did struggle just a bit in their last starts.  Anibal still struck out 9 in his last start against Minnesota, but a tough first inning where he threw 30 pitches hurt him on the day as he gave up 3 earned in 6 innings of work.  Seriously, if this is all we have to worry about….

Doug Fister, SP – Fister only lasted 6 innings as well in his last start but was shutting down the Astros until the 7^th inning where he gave up 3 runs (2 earned) and something like 5 consecutive hits after allowing 4 in the previous innings.

Series Prediction: Tigers split 1-1

Next Series: vs. Cleveland Indians (15-14, 3.5 GB) for 3

BTW, lets not forget this little mishap from a couple years back...

Tiger Talk 5.6.13

The Tigers finish up a four-game sweep of the Houston Astros and have an off-day today as they travel to take on the Washington Nationals for two before heading home to take on Cleveland and Houston.

Now for your latest Tiger news...

• Monday Morning Manager, a weekly look at the Tigers by Bleacher Report
• The BR asks if Don Kelly is the Major's most useful 25th man
• The BR hands out grades for every Tiger in April
• The DetNews talks about how Verlander's conditioning not a pitch count should dictate how long he pitches for
• VMart headed to the bench for the inter-league match-up in Washington
• Lynn Henning on if Cabrera got to play at old Tiger Stadium
• Future starter Drew Smyly flourishes in bullpen role
• If you're an ESPN Insider, you can read about Cabrera's historic RBI pace (on pace for 201)
• The Tigers are up a couple spots in ESPN's weekly Power Rankings

Series Preview: Detroit Tigers (15-11, .5 GB) vs. Houston Astros (8-20, 9.5 GB)

The transition to the American League has been difficult for the Astros as expected this year with the team’s 8-20 record and a tough mini-road trip to Boston where the Astros were swept and to New York where the Yankees too two of three.   The Astros have lost 7 of their last 10, lost two in a row, have a negative 46 run differential, and are 4-8 in the cozy confines of Minute Maid Park.  Houston finds themselves in the middle of the pack in the Majors in hitting, with 115 runs scored (17^th), a .258 team batting average (11^th), .317 on-base percentage (17^th), and 11^th in slugging at .413.   The Astros really struggle on the pitching front however, ranking last in the Majors in ERA (5.42), quality starts (7), WHIP (1.64), and batting average against (.299).  Keep an eye on these games, because if you think the Braves struck out a lot, you have to see the Astros!

Detroit is coming off a nice home stand capped by a series win over the Twins.  Although Detroit lost its last game, the team is 6-4 in their last 10, 5-7 on the road, and have a +23 run differential.  The Tigers offense is clicking right now with the team hitting .279 (2^nd MLB), scoring 127 runs (6^th), slugging .410 (12^th), and getting on base at a .345 clip (4^th).  Detroit’s pitching is bouncing around a bit with a team ERA at 3.66 (8^th), 18 quality starts (3^rd), a 1.25 WHIP (11^th), and .241 batting average against (9^th).  

Pitching Matchup @ Minute Maid Park

5/2, 8:10 – Rick Porcello (1-2, 8.84 ERA) vs. Jordan Lyles (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

5/3, 8:10 – Doug Fister (4-0, 2.38 ERA) vs. Bud Norris (3-3, 4.20 ERA)

5/4, 7:10 – Max Scherzer (3-0, 4.02 ERA) vs. Lucas Harrell (3-2, 3.60 ERA)

5/5, 4:10 – Justin Verlander (3-2, 1.83 ERA) vs. Philip Humber (0-6, 7.58 ERA)

Season Series: N/A

Minute Maid Park

Who to Watch (Houston)

Jose Altuve, 2B -  The little scrapper gets it done with a .336 batting average currently and is tied for the team lead in RBI with14, while collecting nine extra base hits

Jason Castro, C – Leads the team with 10 doubles and has a nice .284 average to go with some pop, the catcher is one of the more consistent hitters on the team

Lucas Harrell, SP – Harrell has won his last three starts (Yankees, Mariners, Indians), giving up just a run to New York and Seattle, and two to Cleveland.  Harrell looks like a ground ball pitcher which is perfect for Minute Maid who isn’t going to strike out a ton

Who Not to Watch (Houston)

Chris Carter, 1B/OF – Carter has a lot of pop, but is an Adam Dunn type guy with either a home run or strike out as you can tell by his 6 home runs and 14 RBI, but also by his 47 strike outs

Rick Ankiel, OF – Ankiel’s hitting .189 with 5 dingers, 11 RBI, and 32 k’s

Philip Humber, SP – Humber is 0-6 was hit hard by the Yankees (4 earned),  but shelled against the Red Sox ( 7 earned) and  Indians (8 earned) in his last 3 starts.

Who’s Hot (Detroit Last 7 Days)

Andy Dirks, OF – Although it’s just three games, Dirks has collected four hits including a homer to hit .444 in those games and is headed in a positive direction

Miguel Cabrera, 3B – Just going to hold this spot for Cabrera until he retires.  Cabby is at it again, hitting .385 with 2 homers and 10 RBI in 7 games

Justin Verlander, SP – JV is just 1-0 in his 2 starts as he came out after 6 innings last week with a lead before the pen blew it.  Verlander has thrown 14 innings in those 2 starts, struck out 12 and given up 2 earned runs (1.29)

Who’s Not (Detroit Last 7 Days)

Tigers Catchers – Have 3 hits combined in 24 at bats (.125) with Alex hitting a homer and a combined 7 k’s

Bruce Rondon, RP – The kid has just flat out struggled giving up 3 earned in 2.1 innings, allowing 5 hits, walking 2, and striking 1 out 

  

Series Prediction: Tigers win series 3-1

Next Series: 2 @ Washington Nationals (14-14, 3.5 GB)

Series Preview: Minnesota Twin (11-10, 1.5 GB) vs. Detroit Tigers (13-10, .5 GB)

Minnesota comes in to the series surprisingly over .500 currently, winning their last two against Texas and seven of their last ten.  The Twins are 4-4 on the road with a –1 run differential which can be chalked up to mediocre hitting and pitching.  The Twins like the Tigers haven’t been hitting for a whole lot of power with the 27^th ranked slugging percentage (.362), they rank 12^th in the Major’s for on base (.322), and are 19^th in team average at .244, and are 24^th in runs scored with 88.  From a pitching perspective, Minnesota’s team ERA ranks 15^th in the Major’s at 3.73, they are 26^th in quality starts with 9, have a 1.34 WHIP (23^rd), and opponents hit a combined .276 (29^th) off of them.

Detroit is coming off of a sweep of one of the best teams in baseball in the Atlanta Braves, and now have won five of their last 10 with a 8-3 record at home with an offensive explosion, good for a +21 run differential.  Detroit is back to being first in the Major’s in team batting average with a .279, and are not 6^th in runs scored with 115.  Detroit also now ranks first in on base percentage with a .347 average and their slugging percentage has improved slightly to .399, good for 14^th in the Major’s.  The pitching staff had a very good series with Atlanta helping the team ERA down to 3.71 (13^th), earning a total of 15 quality starts (4^th), sharing a 1.27 WHIP (17^th), and a batting average against of .244 (14^th).

Pitching Matchup @ Comerica Park

4/29, 7:08 – Mike Pelfrey (2-2, 7.94 ERA) vs. Max Scherzer (2-0, 4.13 ERA)

4/30, 7:08 – Vance Worley (0-3, 6.38 ERA) vs. Justin Verlander (2-2, 1.95 ERA)

5/1, 1:05 – Scott Diamond (1-2, 4.32 ERA) vs. Anibal Sancehez (3-1, 1.34 ERA)

Season Series: Minnesota leads 2-1

Comerica Park

Who to Watch (Minnesota)

1. Josh Willingham, OF – Willingham is leading the team in OPS (.927), home runs (4), and RBI (12), and although 2 of his 4 home runs have come in the last week , he is hitting just .235. 
2. Oswaldo Arcia, OF – Highly touted prospect Oswaldo Arcia (#67 on Pepper Top 100 Prospects for 2013) received the call recently playing in nine games to date hitting .194 but with 2 homers and 6 RBI in 31 plate appearances
3. Joe Mauer, C – The steady Mauer is hitting .302 currently with a couple homers and 8 RBI.  His 37 total bases lead the team currently as does his 26 hits.

 Who Not to Watch (Minnesota)

1. Aaron Hicks, OF – The 94^th ranked prospect on the Pepper Top 100 list is struggling mightily after a strong spring, hitting just .118, with 8 hits and 24 strike outs
2. Mike Pelfrey, SP – In four starts, Pelfrey has thrown just 17 innings, yet is 2-2.  In those 17 innings, he given up 15 earned runs (0 to Detroit, KC 6, LAA 4, MIA 5) good for a 7.94 ERA and hitters are batting .367 against Mike.  A 2.00 WHIP says it all…
3. Vance Worley, SP – Worley has five starts under his belt including a loss to Detroit on Opening Day in which he gave up 3 earned.  The other four starts have been hit or miss where he went just one inning against the Mets giving up 7 earned (9 total), but shut down the White Sox a week later (1 earned) and Rangers recently allowing just 2 runs.  Currently Vance’s ERA sits at 6.38 with a .343 average against and 1.83 WHIP 

Who’s Hot (Detroit, last 7 days)

1. Omar Infante, 2B – Infante’s hitting .526 over the past week with 2 homers including a big one last night giving the Tigers some cushion to go along with 5 RBI and 20 total bases for the week.
2. Miguel Cabrera, 3B –Cabby remains hot hitting .450 this past week with a home run, 8 RBI to and 15 total bases.
3. Anibal Sanchez, SP – Upstaging JV weekly is tough to do, but Sanchez managed to do that again but beating Atlanta Friday, shutting them out for eight innings, and striking out 17 

Who’s Not (Detroit, last 7 days)

1. Alex Avila, C – It’s a bit baffling to me as to why we are not hearing more about Alex’s struggles but he is clearly losing playing time to Pena as Alex played in 3 of 5 games, with no hits,  3 walks, and 4 strike outs
2. Prince Fielder, 1B – Prince will be off this list soon I’m guessing, but he did hit just .125 this past week with just 2 hits, an RBI, 7 walks, and 6 k’s
3. Max Scherzer, SP – Max looks to bounce back even though he won his last start, Scherzer clearly didn’t have his best stuff lasting just five innings, giving up five earned and striking out six.

Series Prediction: Tigers win series 2-1

Next Series: 4 @ Houston Astros (7-18)

Series Preview: Atlanta Braves (15-6, 4.5 GA) vs. Detroit Tigers (10-10, 1.5 GB)

The Tigers get their first taste of the new inter-league every day format with the Braves coming to town for three which could possibly be a future World Series match-up if the Tigers could hold up their end of the bargain.  Atlanta comes in the series with a 15-6 record in the NL East and a 9-4 road record; however the team is just 5-5 in their last 10 most recently taking a series in Colorado, but losers of 3 of 4 in Pittsburgh.  The Braves +41 run differential is tops in the Major’s and although the offense has been mashing, it’s really about the pitching.  Atlanta’s team ERA is first in the Major’s at 2.52, they are 4^th in quality starts with 13, first in WHIP with a 1.13, and 7^th in batting average against at .230.  The hitting is middle of the pack except for power where they rank 2^nd with a .446 slugging percentage, but scores just the 11^th most runs in the Major’s at 96.  The team is 16^th in average at .250 and 12^th in on-base with a .327. 

The Tigers seem to be stuck in that mode where if one (hitting) or two things (starting pitching), then a third thing fails (relief pitching), and if the pitching is good, the team doesn't hit.  With that being the case that makes it extremely difficult on the team to run off wins as their 5-5 record in the last 10 will show.  Home field advantage hasn't really taken effect yet with the weather (5-3 at home) and although the team is hitting, they’re not scoring a ton of runs with just a +3 run differential.  Detroit’s score 90 runs on the season, good for 13^th overall in the Major’s, have a .269 average (3^rd), an on-base of .337 (5^th), but are doing nothing in the extra base category ranking 23^rd with a .372 slugging percentage.  The pitching numbers aren't the most truth telling as the starters outside of Rick Porcello have been great, but the bullpen has been lousy.  The Tigers team ERA of 3.91 ranks 17^th in the bigs, have 12 quality starts (12^th), own a 1.33 WHIP (22^nd), and are 19^th in batting average against with a .252.  Detroit is going to need to have their stuff together to win this series.

Pitching Match-up @ Comerica Park

4/26, 7:05 – Paul Maholm (3-1, 1.03 ERA) vs. Anibal Sanchez (2-1, 1.75 ERA)

4/27, 1:05 – Kris Medlen (1-2, 2.16 ERA) vs. Rick Porcello (0-2, 11.08 ERA)

4/28, 8:05 – Mike Minor (3-1, 1.80 ERA) vs. Doug Fister (3-0, 2.00 ERA)

Season Series: N/A

Comerica Park

Who to Watch (Atlanta)

Justin Upton, OF – Wow, and I mean wow!!  Upton has been revitalized and realizing the level of talent that everyone expected from him in Arizona.  Justin is leading the Majors with 11 home runs (next closest has 8), is hitting .316, and has driven in 16, to go with a 1.200 OPS.  Upton will strike out a bunch though with 23 on the season in 91 plate appearances.

Evan Gattis, C – I could have gone with the Major’s top hitter in Chris Johnson here, but Gattis has stepped in unexpectedly for injured Brian McCann and been an impact for Opening Day, hitting .246 with 6 home runs, with 13 RBI and .915 OPS

Paul Maholm, SP – Really any of the starters could go here, but a big surprise so far on the season has been Maholm and his 1.03 ERA and 8.54 k rate.  Maholm’s competition hasn't been the greatest facing the Pirates, Phillies, and Marlins, but he did beat the Nationals and completely shut them down for 7.2 innings, allowing 4 hits and striking out 7 on April 14^th.

Who Not to Watch (Atlanta)

Jason Heyward, OF – Even with the success the Braves have had early on, some of the bats are still struggling with Jason Heyward as public enemy #1.  Jason is hitting .121, not striking out a ton (12 in 70 PA’s) but not racking up hits either with 7 (2 of which are doubles and 2 HR) and has just driven in 5 on the season.

B.J. Upton, OF – B.J. unfortunately hasn't found the success that his little brother has in Atlanta, hitting just .150 with 3 homers, and 5 RBI to go with 27 k’s in 87 PA’s

Dan Uggla, 2B – Typically this spot is reserved for a pitcher, however Atlanta’s great team ERA doesn't really allow that so Uggla’s .185 average 4 homers, 6 RBI, and 24 k’s (77 PA’s) fills my third spot

Who to Watch (Detroit)
Jose Valverde, CP – Nowhere close to being off my sh*t list, but he is must see TV right now as he’s either going to succeed or go down in flames hard

Anibal Sanchez, SP – Sanchez has been pretty damn impressive so far and even with the Angels games being his worst outing by far, he still gave up only 2 earned, despite allowing 11 hits

Miguel Cabrera, 3B – The power still isn’t fully there, but Cabrera is stinging the ball all over the park hitting .500 in his last 7 with a couple doubles and 3 RBI.  Miguel has his season average up to .361 and season OPS up to .938

Who Not to Watch (Detroit)

Rick Porcello, SP – 11.08 ERA and seriously he’s starting another game?  The only thing going for him Saturday is this is a feast or famine team he’s facing but he better keep the ball down.  BTW, I came up with a new stat…earned runs to strike ratio: Porcello = 5.33:1

Alex Avila, C – I’m pretty much through with Avila

Phil Coke, RP – Ditto.  Walk 3 straight, no thanks.  8.31 ERA, 0-3

Series Prediction: Atlanta wins 2 of 3.  You know what they say about good pitching…(and I’m not just talking about the starters)

Next Series: 3 vs. Minnesota Twins (9-9, 1.5 GB)